Israel 2026

Method and Sources

Simple mean of the latest primary-verified poll from each pollster/publisher pair with fieldwork in the last 14 days before the newest poll. Sub-threshold results count as 0 seats. Seats then scaled to 120 by largest remainder among parties averaging at least 3.9 seats. Unweighted by sample size. MEF calculation, unaudited.

Polls in the Current Average

Where the Polls Come From

Israeli seat projections are published by broadcasters and newspapers (Channel 12, Channel 13, Channel 14, Kan 11, Channel 16, Maariv, Israel Hayom, Walla, Zman Yisrael and others) from fieldwork by named polling firms (Midgam, Lazar, Kantar, Yossi Tatika, Filber, Direct Polls, Maagar Mochot, Midgam Project). MEF links to the original publication on every row. A poll enters the average only after its seat figures have been read from the publisher's own report; polls whose report could not be opened are held off the site until it can be. The average uses full-list polls only; scenario polls (hypothetical mergers or leaders) are shown separately.

Reading the Numbers

Israeli polls report seats, not vote shares, and a party under the 3.25 percent threshold is shown as a percentage. The average is unweighted: a 500-person Maariv sample and a 940-person Channel 13 sample count equally. House effects are visible in the pollster filter on the polls page; Channel 14's polls have run several seats above the field for the government bloc through 2026.

The Middle East Forum is an applied policy research organization founded in 1994. This page is a research product; MEF endorses no party or candidate. Corrections: info@meforum.org.